This contest at 205 pounds will prove quite the impact for the UFC light-heavyweight title. With Jon Jones talking on Chael Sonnen at the end of the month, Alexander with a victory will all but be the number one contender. So let's take a closer look at this fight.
For those of you who don't know Gegard, he is coming into the UFC as a veteran sporting an impressive 33-3-2 record (18 knockouts, 11 submissions). He is one of many talents brought over from the now disassembled Strikeforce promotion.
Some of the things that Gegard has working for him are:
- Experience (22 more fights than Alex)
- Striking, he is considered one of the most technical strikers at 205 pounds
- Slight edge in grappling
- Underdog "X-Factor", you never know when an upset will happen
Now the Swedish countrymen Alexander has a few more things in his favor which include:
- Fighting in front of a "hometown" base in Sweden (his native country)
- Having fought arguably much more difficult competition in the UFC
- Height and reach advantage at being 6'4 (Gegard is only 6'1)
With those things being said, here is how I think the fight will play out.
Expect the fight to remain standing dominantly. This will be a striking chess match to see how makes the first mistake. I can't see this fight ending with a finish due to the durability and youth of both fighters, especially when so much is on the line. Expect it to go all 5 rounds. Either man is capable of submitting or knocking the other one out, and it literally could happen at anytime.
If Alexander fights tall and uses his reach, he can win a hard fought decision or get a late stoppage. If Alexander starts to brawl with Gegard, expect Gegard to capitalize and get the finish. With all of the Strikeforce fighters now in the UFC, and winning in dominating fashion, I don't believe this fight could be any harder to predict.
Alexander will win via decision.
Hope this has boosted your interest a little and be sure to tune in on Fuel-TV next weekend. Enjoy!
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